Results of the 19th National Assembly Elections and Post-election Outlook

In the 19th National Assembly elections on April 11, conservatives (Saenuri Party, Liberty Forward Party and conservative independent candidates) gained 158 seats while liberals (Democratic United Party, United Progressive Party and progressive independent candidates) won 142 seats. In detail, the ruling Saenuri Party won a majority with 152 seats in the 300-member Assembly, defying earlier predictions that it would fail, and was able to bring the National Assembly under its control again. On the other hand, the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) won 127 seats. Even if the DUP had formed an alliance with the United Progressive Party (UPP) and other progressives, the number would have still fallen short of reclaiming the majority. With 13 seats, the UPP has become the third-largest party in the National Assembly, but as it failed to win 20 seats nationwide, it does not meet the minimum requirement to establish a floor negotiation unit.

Parties	Saenuri	DUP	UPP	LFP	Independents
					Conservative	Progressive	Other
Seats	152	127	13	5	1	2	0
Electoral district representative	127	106	7	3	–
Proportional representative	25	21	6	2
Percent of vote	50.6%	42.3%	4.3%	1.6%

→  Total 300 seats available (246 by electoral district representation and 54 by proportional representation)

Thirty-two pro-labor candidates and 15 candidates from labor groups were elected. These 47 pro-labor lawmakers account for 15 percent of all elected politicians. In the 17th National Assembly elections (held in 2004), labor activists concentrated their efforts on the Democratic Labor Party, while in the 18th National Assembly elections (2008), labor groups formed political alliances with the ruling conservative party. In this general election, labor groups worked to unite themselves with other democratic and progressive parties directly or indirectly, in order to strengthen their political influence. This increased number of such labor activists-turned-lawmakers is expected to cause significant changes within the National Assembly.

Although the ruling Saenuri Party brought the National Assembly under its control again, it is likely be willing to work with the opposition alliance as the presidential elections near. The main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) is expected to seek a political coalition with the minority Unified Progressive Party (UPP) in order to strengthen its influence over the political situation.

Although the ruling Saenuri Party secured control over the National Assembly through efforts for policy reform, competition between the ruling party and opposition parties is expected to continue until the presidential elections in December. The Saenuri Party is also broadcasting its favorable views towards low-income earners by sticking to general election pledges to focus on protection of non-regular workers, in-house subcontracted workers, social welfare and increased regulation of conglomerates.

Meanwhile, after its disappointing election results, the main opposition Democratic United Party is likely to increase its efforts to gain the upper hand in the National Assembly and prove corruption in the current government by demanding a review of the Korea-US FTA, a special probe into allegations of corruption among President Lee Myung Bak’s aides, a hearing over illegal surveillance of civilians and a push for economic democratization.

Pro-labor lawmakers-elect are not only in the opposition camp but also the governing Saenuri Party. As such, political activities by labor groups are likely to be diverse. As the Saenuri Party has named Choi Bong-hong who served as the head of the Korean Federation of Port & Transport Workers’ Unions, as a proportional representative, there is a possibility it will work with the conservative group within the Federation of Korean Trade Unions.

The Democratic United Party is trying to establish ties with both umbrella labor organizations, the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU) and the Korea Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), and is expected to support radical labor policies. During its unification process, the DUP formed an alliance with labor groups by involving the FKTU and signing a policy coalition with the United Progressive Party and the KCTU. It is therefore feared that fierce competition between pro-labor members from different labor organizations could lead to labor policies that go far in a radical direction.

The United Progressive Party gained a record number of seats for itself in the 19^th general elections (13, versus 5 in the 18^th election, and 10 in the 17^th) and due to its alliance with the Democratic United Party, the UPP has continued to push KCTU demands and views. In the future, the UPP will maintain its current alliance with the DUP in opposing the conservative government and try to lower the current minimum seat requirement (20 seats) to become a floor negotiating unit before a political party can establish a National Assembly negotiating group; however, the feasibility of this remains in doubt.

With 47 candidates having pro-labor credentials elected for the next National Assembly, there are concerns that the Environment and Labor Committee will be filled with pro-labor representatives that will favor workers in its legislation. The Environment and Labor Committee consists of about 16 members, so it will be easy for labor activists-turned-lawmakers to form the majority.

In the past, the second largest party in the National Assembly has held the chairmanship of the Environment and Labor Committee, and since the DUP has become the second largest party, the United Progressive Party could ask the DUP for the right to appoint the chairperson from among its ranks. If this happens, meeting proceedings and discussion of bills will likely lean toward opposition views. Also, when bills come under review by the committee, this pro-labor leaning is unlikely to be diluted, as an equal number of members from the ruling party and the opposition party attends.

Even though the Saenuri Party appoints an independent labor expert as its secretary, it is a worry that pro-labor lawmakers will propose bills that increase regulations on businesses, in such areas as reduction of working hours and protection for non-regular and in-house subcontracted workers.