① Remaining term of the 19th National Assembly (~ 29 May 2016)
1. Uncertainty surrounding passage of economic revitalization bills, including bills on labor reform
The Saenuri Party plans to prioritize efforts to push for passage of its economic revitalization bills, which include its bills on labor reform and service industry development now that the general elections are over, but the outcome remains uncertain since the opposition parties who together outnumber the ruling party, oppose these bills.
As the Vice-Presidents of major business associations requested legislation of the economic revitalization bills on 11 April, the Saenuri Party said it would prioritize their passage by the end of the 19th National Assembly. However, the Minjoo Party said it would review all the bills after the general elections, while the People’s Party said it would examine some of them.
Apparently, the general procedure as well as the special procedure for passing the bills in the National Assembly Act are not likely to be taken. As there are an equal number of members from the ruling and the opposition parties in the Labor Committee and the Legislation & Judiciary Committee under the National Assembly, passage of the ruling party’s bills is unlikely. The Saenuri Party and the People’s Party together hold less than 3/5 of the incumbent member seats.
② The 20th National Assembly (30 May 2016 ~)
1. Government’s ability to lead in labor reform weakening due to changes in legislative environment
The Saenuri Party’s plans to pass its economic revitalization and labor reform bills in the 20th National Assembly have weakened since its loss of majority in the National Assembly. The People’s Party has a strong influence over legislation with the deciding vote because there is no single party with a majority. Therefore the 1st and 2nd floor negotiating groups will have to work with the People’s Party if they hope to pass the bills and thereby deal with the major issues.
Composition of the Labor Committee and the Legislation & Judiciary Committee will be the biggest unknown in labor legislation with the National Assembly and it is likely a majority of the Standing Committees will be opposition party members.
2. Growing uncertainty over industrial relations
The government’s ability to lead in labor reform has weakened ” Industrial relations will be influenced by the Judiciary in such rulings as those on working hours and ordinary wage.
More pro-labor representatives entering the National Assembly ” Industrial relations will be influenced by the National Assembly through parliamentary inspections and labor legislation.
The government’s ability to lead in other policies has weakened ” Industrial relations will be influenced by the government through Administration guidelines and administrative supervision.